{"id":11632,"date":"2022-05-15T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-15T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informatepy.com\/2021\/?p=11632"},"modified":"2022-05-14T19:57:20","modified_gmt":"2022-05-14T22:57:20","slug":"donde-esta-la-inflacion-en-bolivia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informatepy.com\/2021\/2022\/05\/15\/donde-esta-la-inflacion-en-bolivia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfD\u00f3nde est\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A finales de abril, la BBC public\u00f3 un art\u00edculo sobre la \u00abausencia\u00bb de inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia. A ra\u00edz de esa nota, miles de periodistas alrededor de Sudam\u00e9rica volvieron a halagar el \u00abexitoso\u00bb modelo econ\u00f3mico implantado por Evo Morales<\/strong> y su s\u00e9quito de socialistas.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No obstante, la BBC se equivoca de cabo a rabo. Porque en Bolivia hay inflaci\u00f3n, y mucha. Pero est\u00e1 en los bienes que muy pocos tienen el tino de analizar. Veamos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En primer lugar, la inflaci\u00f3n no es la subida general de precios \u2015como repiten hasta el cansancio los profesores de las grandes universidades\u2015, sino el incremento, sin respaldo, de la masa monetaria. De hecho, para que exista un aumento general, deben subir todos los precios de manera simult\u00e1nea, incluyendo salarios (y los ahorros deber\u00edan estar indexados tambi\u00e9n). De darse esa situaci\u00f3n, no existir\u00eda problema alguno. El meollo del asunto radica en que los aumentos de la base monetaria afectan a los precios relativos. Pues no todos suben a la vez, sino en periodos distintos de tiempo. Por eso el retraso que tiene el asalariado respecto a los bienes de consumo final.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

De igual manera, el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica de Bolivia \u2015al igual que cualquier otra instituci\u00f3n estatal que maneje datos\u2015 usa el \u00cdndice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) como indicador para \u00abmedir\u00bb la inflaci\u00f3n de los bienes b\u00e1sicos de consumo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Empero, \u00bfqu\u00e9 superpoder tienen los gobernantes para definir cuales son los bienes \u00abb\u00e1sicos\u00bb que deber\u00edan ingresar al IPC? En realidad, ninguno. Ergo<\/em>, es un indicador manipulable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aqu\u00ed es donde los economistas convencionales fallan. Ya que cuando ven una subida de precios en los bienes que conforman el IPC gritan \u2015cual protagonista de pel\u00edcula de terror\u2015 inflaci\u00f3n<\/em>. Sin embargo, cuando observan el mismo fen\u00f3meno en bienes que no est\u00e1n dentro este indicador lo llaman \u00abauge\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ese es el truco que us\u00f3 el r\u00e9gimen durante varios a\u00f1os. Puesto que la manipulaci\u00f3n de las tasas de inter\u00e9s destinadas a la compra de inmuebles se tradujo en una elevaci\u00f3n de hasta el 30% en el precio final. Entonces la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 en los bienes de consumo duradero \u2015falsamente, considerados el motor de la recuperaci\u00f3n\u2015, por ejemplo, viviendas, terrenos y departamentos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahora bien, que la econom\u00eda nacional no haya tocado fondo se debe, de manera exclusiva, al tipo de cambio fijo. Pero esa buena medida, la \u00fanica acertada del r\u00e9gimen, no aguanta todo. Porque de seguir los niveles de gasto p\u00fablico, la acumulaci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit fiscal y, especialmente, la dr\u00e1stica reducci\u00f3n de las Reservas Internacionales el gobierno se ver\u00e1 forzado a devaluar. Por ende, la inflaci\u00f3n saldr\u00e1 disparada por los cielos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Por otra parte, el 02 de mayo, el peri\u00f3dico Los tiempos <\/em>public\u00f3 una encuesta realizada por el Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Laboral y Agrario (CEDLA). La misma revel\u00f3 que casi dos tercios de los ciudadanos bolivianos, producto de la pandemia, sufri\u00f3 una disminuci\u00f3n en sus ingresos, y el 80 por ciento report\u00f3 que no le alcanza para llegar a fin de mes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de lo acertado del an\u00e1lisis, hay un error de interpretaci\u00f3n de los datos. La pandemia no fue el factor principal en la ca\u00edda de la econom\u00eda boliviana, su papel es de tan solo un elemento agravante. Las familias est\u00e1n sintiendo los efectos del agotamiento del nefasto modelo econ\u00f3mico boliviano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incluso, a pesar de mantener los mismos niveles de gasto estatal, la econom\u00eda boliviana viene en ca\u00edda desde el 2014. Con el agravante que desde ese a\u00f1o los ingresos de la renta gas\u00edfera fueron reemplazados con grandes dosis de deuda (interna y externa).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Como lo dije antes, no hay que buscar el qu\u00e9 (todo apunta a un default), sino el cu\u00e1ndo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a1Que Dios nos proteja!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A finales de abril, la BBC public\u00f3 un art\u00edculo sobre la \u00abausencia\u00bb de inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia. A ra\u00edz de esa nota, miles de periodistas alrededor de Sudam\u00e9rica volvieron a halagar el \u00abexitoso\u00bb modelo econ\u00f3mico implantado por Evo Morales y su s\u00e9quito de socialistas.   No obstante, la BBC se equivoca de cabo a rabo. Porque […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":false},"categories":[248],"tags":[728,1036,582],"ppma_author":[1051],"class_list":["post-11632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisis","tag-bolivia","tag-destacada","tag-inflacion"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfD\u00f3nde est\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia? - Informatepy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/informatepy.com\/2021\/2022\/05\/15\/donde-esta-la-inflacion-en-bolivia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfD\u00f3nde est\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia? - Informatepy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A finales de abril, la BBC public\u00f3 un art\u00edculo sobre la \u00abausencia\u00bb de inflaci\u00f3n en Bolivia. 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A ra\u00edz de esa nota, miles de periodistas alrededor de Sudam\u00e9rica volvieron a halagar el \u00abexitoso\u00bb modelo econ\u00f3mico implantado por Evo Morales y su s\u00e9quito de socialistas.   No obstante, la BBC se equivoca de cabo a rabo. 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